This comprehensive life-cycle assessment (LCA) delves into the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with passenger cars, including SUVs, with a specific focus on Cars Medium Size. The study meticulously examines data from Europe, the United States, China, and India, representing approximately 70% of global new passenger car sales, to highlight market-specific variations. It analyzes both current and projected future GHG emissions across every stage of a vehicle’s and fuel’s life cycle—from raw material extraction and processing, through manufacturing and operation, to end-of-life recycling or disposal.
The research adopts a broad approach by considering all relevant powertrain types, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and a diverse range of fuels such as biofuels, electrofuels, hydrogen, and electricity. It compares the life-cycle GHG emissions of cars medium size registered in 2021 against projections for those registered in 2030. This study distinguishes itself from previous LCA research in several key aspects:
- It evaluates the lifetime average carbon intensity of fuel and electricity mixes, incorporating biofuels and biogas, and accounts for policy-driven changes in carbon intensity throughout the vehicles’ lifespan.
- It assesses fuel and electricity consumption based on average real-world driving conditions rather than relying solely on official test values, which is particularly crucial for accurately gauging PHEV emissions.
- It utilizes recent data on industrial-scale battery production and regional battery supply chains, leading to significantly reduced battery production emission estimates compared to earlier studies.
- It integrates the near-term global warming potential of methane leakage from natural gas and natural gas-derived hydrogen pathways. Methane’s impact on global warming is considerably higher in the initial 20 years post-emission than indicated by the 100-year global warming potential, setting it apart from other GHGs.
The findings indicate that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) already possess the lowest life-cycle GHG emissions, even for cars medium size registered today. As depicted in the figure below, the lifetime emissions of average medium-size BEVs registered today are substantially lower than comparable gasoline cars: 66%–69% in Europe, 60%–68% in the United States, 37%–45% in China, and 19%–34% in India. Furthermore, as electricity grids continue to decarbonize, the life-cycle emissions disparity between BEVs and gasoline vehicles, specifically within the cars medium size category, is expected to widen significantly for vehicles projected to be registered in 2030.
Key highlights from this study are further detailed in the attached fact sheets, including a comprehensive analysis and a German-language version focusing on Europe. Additional information can be found here for the English fact sheet on Europe. This research also contributes to a broader briefing within our collaboration with the Zero Emission Vehicles Transition Council.
This paper was updated on November 11, 2022, to correct electricity mix values for certain countries in the European country-specific sensitivity in Figure 3.5.
Attachments Global-LCA-passenger-cars-FS-EN-jul2021.pdf Global-LCA-passenger-cars-FS-DE-jul2021.pdf Global-LCA-passenger-cars-PR-jul2021.pdf
