The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has released its Year End 2024 California Auto Outlook Report, offering a comprehensive analysis of vehicle registrations throughout the state in 2024. This detailed report, using data from Experian Automotive, sheds light on key trends shaping the 2024 Car market in California, including brand performance, shifting consumer preferences, and projections for the year ahead. While overall new vehicle registrations remained largely consistent with the previous year, significant shifts are evident within specific market segments, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid sectors.
Chart showing California New Car Registrations and Market Share Trends in 2024, highlighting ZEV and Hybrid performance
A notable highlight from the 2024 car market analysis is the changing landscape of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). Tesla, a dominant player in the EV market, experienced its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Specifically, Tesla’s registrations decreased by 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, contributing to an overall 11.6 percent drop throughout the entire year. This decline also impacted Tesla’s market share within the ZEV sector, falling by 7.6 percentage points to 52.5 percent by the end of 2024. Looking at the broader California market, Tesla’s share decreased from 13 percent in 2023 to 11.6 percent in 2024.
Despite Tesla’s challenges, the overall California new vehicle market demonstrated stability in 2024. Total light vehicle registrations reached 1,759,141, showing a marginal decrease of only 0.3 percent compared to 2023. Looking forward, projections for the 2025 car market are optimistic, anticipating a slight increase in registrations to 1.80 million vehicles. Furthermore, the fourth quarter of 2024 showed positive momentum with a 4.8 percent increase in new vehicle registrations compared to the same period in 2023, suggesting a potentially stronger performance in the coming year, even though the first quarter of 2025 is predicted to be relatively flat.
One of the most significant trends emerging from the 2024 car market data is a shift in consumer preference within the alternative powertrain sector. While the overall alternative powertrain market share remained strong at 40.2 percent for the year and 42.2 percent in Q4, the ZEV market share experienced a dip in Q4 2024, falling to 21.3 percent from 23.7 percent in the previous quarter. However, the annual ZEV market share for 2024 still reached 22 percent, slightly up from 21.7 percent in 2023. Interestingly, this decline in ZEV market share in Q4 was offset by a significant rise in hybrid vehicle registrations. Hybrids gained 2.4 percentage points in market share during Q4, precisely matching the ZEV decline. This trend indicates a possible preference among California car buyers for a more gradual transition from traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to fully electric cars, with hybrids becoming an increasingly attractive intermediate option.
Robb Hernandez, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Camino Real Chevrolet, highlighted this consumer-driven market dynamic, stating, “As dealers, our primary goal is to offer the vehicles that Californians actually want to drive. Whether it’s hybrids, electric vehicles, or traditional models, we are here to meet consumer demand. It’s not about mandates or pushing one type of powertrain over another—it’s about having the right inventory on our lots to serve the needs of real customers and our communities.”
Analyzing brand performance in the 2024 car market, Toyota emerged as the market leader in California with 289,258 registrations, a 4.4 percent increase from the previous year, capturing 16.4 percent of the state’s market share. Following Toyota, Tesla and Honda held strong positions, with Honda achieving a notable 11.5 percent increase in registrations, reaching 192,166 vehicles and holding 10.9 percent market share alongside Tesla. Several brands experienced substantial registration growth in 2024, with Lincoln, Land Rover, Cadillac, and Buick all showing increases of 20 percent or more.
In terms of model segment rankings for the 2024 car market, several models stood out as best-sellers in their respective categories. The Toyota Camry led the passenger car segment, while the Tesla Model 3 and Honda Civic were closely competitive. For light trucks, the Tesla Model Y dominated sales with 128,923 registrations, followed by the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.
Regional variations were also evident within the California car market in 2024. Northern California experienced a 12.6% decrease in passenger car registrations but a 1.5% increase in light truck registrations, with ZEVs accounting for 25.1% of the region’s market share. Southern California saw a 10.3% decline in passenger car registrations and a 5% growth in light trucks, with ZEVs representing 22.7% of the market.
In conclusion, the 2024 California car market demonstrates stability in overall registrations, but it is characterized by significant shifts within powertrain preferences. The rise of hybrid vehicles and the slight pullback in ZEV market share, particularly for Tesla, indicate evolving consumer choices. As the market moves into 2025, it will be crucial to observe whether these trends continue and how manufacturers and dealers adapt to these changing demands in the California car landscape.
